S&P 500 Valuation measures

Commodities at historic highs

Commodity markets have reach to their historic highs. but will commodity prices would sustain in such low growth environment. Societe general depicts tht commodity prices might show some correction with such level would be difficult to maintain

Key Levels for all markets

Important levels for equity and commodity markets

source Macroman.wordpress.com

Correction in Gold

FInally we saw some correction in Gold, but is it the reversal we were waiting for. i dont think so. Gold is in bull phase and to play a bull market is to buy the dips. i think 1725 to 1700 will give a very good entry.

Nifty Rollover

Nifty rollover stands at 23.93% on E-3 day basis, marginally below its 3-month average of 25.86%. Long roll cost (excluding dividend) decreased to 5-6 points from 11-12 points as observed in the previous week. Despite the fact that long roll cost on E-3 day basis stands lowest in last 2 series, rollover continues to remain in line with past average indicating lower probability of any significant expansion in the roll cost.

Market-wide rollover (excluding index) stands at 31.21% as against 34.48% observed in the previous expiry. Higher rollover was observed in Power (45.24% Vs 41.04%) and Energy (34.47% Vs 32.99%). Lower rollover was seen in sectors such as FMCG (32.55% Vs 38.28%), Technology (25.87% Vs 30.87%) and Cement (30.65% Vs 35.15%).

Observing the open interest concentration pattern in the September series, maximum accumulation among call options is concentrated at 5400 strike (2.31 million shares) followed by 5000 strike (2.27 million shares). Among put options, maximum open interest is concentrated at 5000 strike (3.84 million shares) followed by 4800 strike (3.55 million shares). With global markets showing signs of consolidation, we expect a downward shift in the accumulation pattern to 4800 put option and 5000 call option.

It not all that bad

Admist double dip frenzy and scaremongering, there are few data which is not all that bad.

New home sales figure , though disappointing, is still showing growth.

Baltic Dry index which is indicator of econmic activity has also shown improvement

So summing it up , there are chances of recession but it might be another slow gorwth phases and not the one which we saw in 2008

Philly Fed and Payroll

and interesting chart which shows the correlation of Philly fed Index and Non Farm Payroll. If the correlation proves to be true than we can imagine the horrible NFP number waiting for us

Oil remains bearish

Crude seems to be a in bearish set up, as both fundamental and technical reason point southward direction.With Libyan issue closing for a conclusion and techincially the much dreaded death cross formation on the chart. the upside tends to be limited. i still dont see Oil prices tumbling down and i have a strong view that oil will make a range and will trade a big range.

Debt as Percent of GDP

The lost decade for US

American economy is exhibiting similar trends which were present in Japanese Economy during the Japanese Lost Decade. Barry Riholtz has an interesting observation as he compares MSCI US and MSCI japanese index and comes out with startling results.

though its too early to make such prediction. there are also difference between US and jaoanes economy as Fed is pumping money into the system which Japanese never did. Moreover the demographic were very different as Japan was ageing much faster than US

Sovereign Debt Ratings