Philly Fed and Recession

Whenever philly fed index has breached into negative territory, it is followed by a recession. Last philly fed data is indicating another recession around the corner

It not all that bad

Admist double dip frenzy and scaremongering, there are few data which is not all that bad.

New home sales figure , though disappointing, is still showing growth.

Baltic Dry index which is indicator of econmic activity has also shown improvement

So summing it up , there are chances of recession but it might be another slow gorwth phases and not the one which we saw in 2008

GDP and Recession

An interesting data, Whenever real GDP growth of US falls less 2 %. It is followed by a recession.
Amercian GDP growth is very much near that pivotal 2 % mark. if GDP shrinks any further, a deep slowdown may be in offing

Breakout in VIX

VIX index has broken its current resistance and it can scale higher in current uncertainty about markets and economy.VIX index generally sense the turbulent markets and it can also be called the fear inde of markets.Last time when VIX broke these levels it knocked off good 7-8 % of the market. considering market already around its lows and spike in VIX index can be detrimental to the markets

Double Dip , Another recession ?

Morgan Stanley's Cyclical index predicts another downturn is on the cards. the intensity of downturn may be difficult to fathom, but the indicator has been prophetic in suggesting business cycles. As the indicator (The blue line oscillator) already pointing southward, Not so encouraging news from europe and japan, emerging markets fighting the inflation monster, the next couple of months will be crucial to define the long term story.