Inter Market correlations

US Dollar

US has fallen back to its previous range. USD was stuck in the range of 73.50 to 76.50 for 6 longs months. and then it broke the range to enter the another higher range of 77.50 to 81. thought i feel that USD should remain in the upper range of 77.5 - 81 as it US economy is slowly showing some signs of prospect and right now its much better placed than europe. USD might only remain in the lower range or breach the lower range if QE 3 is around. right now there is a lesser probability or possibility of QE3 in next 3 months

Capitalism

Brent WTI Spreads

in my earlir post i spoke about that triangle pattern being formed and my hunch for spreads moving upwards. As one can see that BW has finally broken the trend and its poised upward. Though it fell before rising upwards but it was only due to the expiring Brent that month

Brent WTI spreads

The Brent WTI spreads which widened to the historic highs of $ 26 per barrel seems to making way back. For past one month its making a higher low pattern which suggests that the short term bottom has been made and its on its recovery path. the triangle pattern which is being formed can lead to a break out on one side, the probability is more on the higher side for this spread.so in next few months we can see considerable upside in this spread

Correction in Gold

Finally gold showed some sign of correction to its long rally.On charts it has made short term high for sure. the double top formation has actually been formed and the actual price target on the lower side could be around 1500. but i believe it will take a some time to reach those levels and there is short term bounce back that might happen. gold has reached to its Fib levels, that is 61.8 % correction levels of its last move.Moreover 100 dma at 1630 levels would also provide considerable support. if that breaches the next support would be 1575 and then 1500.

Philly Fed and Recession

Whenever philly fed index has breached into negative territory, it is followed by a recession. Last philly fed data is indicating another recession around the corner